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Submission: On April 22 via api from BE — Scanned from DE
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Go
WHERE TO PARK YOUR CASH IN A LESS THAN CONFIDENT MARKET
we have a market that’s moving higher – but nobody is willing to push it beyond
this point.
Right now, nobody is selling, and nobody is buying.
And it’s all because we are in a market that is lacking confidence
Volume across the board can be described as anemic at best.
When I looked at the current volume of all of the major indexes, a lot of the
sectors were seeing volume that was hardly a third of what you’d expect to see.
Typically, for the first month of each quarter, all of the market’s issues can
be chalked up to earnings disrupting the market.
But, earnings have done much better than any of us could have expected given the
headlines.
This is telling me that the market isn’t having an earnings issue right now but
rather a confidence issue.
Knowing that a market that lacks confidence can be dangerous if not approached
properly, you’ll need to figure out the best place to park some cash to keep it
growing at a consistent pace.
We’ve been pretty clear about the fact that the Old School Safety Trades haven’t
been popular with traders of late.
One reason – why buy a stock that pays a 3% dividend only to get a negative real
return when the shares lose 5% year to date when you can just stuff your money
in the bank?
But, the data is showing that we’re seeing a money migration back into the
old-school Safety Trades.
Volume on the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU), Consumer Staples Select
Sector SPDR Fund (XLP), SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), and other safety trades have
been on the rise, as investors may be hunkering down for a long summer of
trading.
This is at the same time that the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ), SPDR S&P 500
ETF Trust (SPY), IShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and other more market-sensitive
ETFs are seeing a decline in volume.
But there’s more.
While volume is good, the breadth and momentum of that volume is better.
We can get a good read of momentum in the ETF landscape by looking at the
percentage of companies within each ETF trading above their 50-day moving
average:
Utilities are a given. People have been keeping the lights on and AC blowing
since at least the 50s, so it’s no surprise these companies are doing well –
especially as more people work from home.
But the sector I want to tear apart for you is the SPDR Consumer Staples (XLP).
This is a sector where you can find the stocks that are in it by going into any
room in your house and opening up a cabinet. I guarantee you’ll find something
that is produced by a company in the consumer staple sector.
This is your Procter & Gamble Co (PG), your Colgate-Palmolive Co (CL), PepsiCo
Inc. (PEP), and Coca-Cola Co (KO).
For the XLP, here is your breakdown sorted:
The three that I’m watching right now are highlighted in green.
Let’s start with the first on the list, Mondelez International Inc. (MDLZ):
The stock is coming off a rally from the $65 level and starting to consolidate
at $70.
This is a classic-style technical setup. The 200-day moving average (MA20) is
giving support to the company, the 50-day moving average (MA50) is showing a
bullish trend, and it’s above its 200-day moving average (MA200).
You can’t find a better technical picture – maybe if those Bollinger Bands start
to contract. And that consolidation tells me they are right on the brink of that
happening as well!
What amplifies this trade, as well as the next two, is the dividend yield that
goes along with it.
Right now, MDLZ is paying out 2.9% on its dividend, but year-to-date it’s also
returned 6% on the share price.
Then you have your only option for a good chocolate bar, Hershey Company (HSY):
This company’s Bollinger Bands are wide open right now, but just like with MDLZ,
the stock is consolidating – this time at $260. Meanwhile, the moving averages
are painting the exact same picture.
Now, this will be a bit pricey to play the long side of, but if you stretch it
out to the June or July expiration, it becomes much more manageable.
And don’t forget that takes you into the summer months when they will have
another revenue stream open up with their amusement park. Oh, by the way, we are
seeing the Producer Price Index show a bit of easing, which will lead to a
larger profit margin on each sale they make.
All of the fundamentals of this company pair with the technicals almost as good
as, well, peanut butter pairs with chocolate.
Look for a target of $270 for this position.
And the last company on my list is going to be Church & Dwight (CHD):
This one has gone through all of the dirty laundry, but in this disconnected
market, it’s positioned to come out of the wash squeaky clean.
This company only makes up 1% of the sector, but it’s up 12% on the year.
At first glance, the technicals don’t look outstanding on this stock, but it’s a
bit of a facade.
You are still seeing the MA50 moving higher, giving a point of support, but the
real special sauce here is the MA200 which is starting to turn higher after a
stretch of a downward trend.
The trend has shifted drastically. For most of last year, the company wasn’t
doing that great.
If you want in on this company, look for it to move back to its highs of $105 as
people continue to enter the defensive trade.
Of course, if you want to avoid the headline risk of individual stocks, you can
just stick with the XLP. If you take that route, look to trade it to a target of
$80.
Regardless of which route you choose, I’m going to be tracking the money flowing
into the safe havens of the market each morning on The Long and Short of It.
When the rest of the market runs dry, the safe havens will be a target-rich
environment that will keep our trades going as the market finally hits its
capitulation stage.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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BREAKOUT WATCHLIST
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August 12, 2021: Buy NSAV for a limit of $0.045%
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August 17, 2021: Buy NTTHF for a limit of $3. Add a 5% trailing stop when the
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09/17/2021
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Sept 17, 2021: Buy RGBP for a limit of $0.05. Add a 7% trailing stop when the
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08/30/2021
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August 30, 2021: Buy ABML for a limit of $1.75. Add a 7% trailing stop when the
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09/22/2021
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Sept 22, 2021: Buy WSTRF for a limit of $2.75. Add a 10% trailing stop when the
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Published
April 18 2023
by Penny Hawk Staff
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