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 * Sure looks like Rick Perry’s going to miss the cut-off for the first debate

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SURE LOOKS LIKE RICK PERRY’S GOING TO MISS THE CUT-OFF FOR THE FIRST DEBATE

AllahpunditPosted at 11:21 am on August 4, 2015

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Today’s the day Fox News announces the finalists for Thursday’s main event.
Until Kasich got in, Perry was just inside the bubble. Now he’s outside, and as
Harry Enten notes, not even rounding up or down to the next percentage point
will help him.

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He spent the last month trying to muscle into Trump’s media spotlight by
attacking “Trumpism,” but in the end, according to the Media Research Center,
he’s earned just four minutes of coverage on the three broadcast networks’
evening news shows since January. (Trump himself has earned 116 minutes.)
Barring any surprising new polls in the next few hours showing him surging past
Kasich, the only way Perry ends up on the same stage as Trump now is if Fox
abandons its format entirely and decides to hold one mega-debate with all of the
candidates or if it sets a different arbitrary polling line for the main debate
to include Perry — “all candidates with a polling average of two percent or
greater,” say, instead of those with the 10 highest averages. But if Fox does
that, they run into another problem. Namely, the more big-name candidates they
rope into the 9 p.m. main debate, the less compelling the 5 p.m.
consolation-prize debate becomes. A 5 p.m. debate involving Perry, Jindal,
Fiorina, Santorum, and Lindsey Graham could be interesting. Take Perry out and
it’s less interesting. Take Santorum out by rounding his average up to two
percent and it’s less interesting still. How small do you want to make the 5
p.m. debate before everyone loses interest?

To get a sense of just how arbitrary these polling criteria are, eyeball this
table from yesterday’s new Monmouth poll. Remember, given the size of polling
samples and the tiny spreads between candidates like Kasich and Perry, the
difference between making the main debate and missing it is a matter of fewer
than 10 people in many polls. If just five respondents, say, flipped from Kasich
to Perry in each poll, Perry would likely be in while Kasich is out. Lucky thing
for the RNC that it played out the way it did, though, as it’s a lot easier to
justify excluding a former governor of a reliably red state like Texas than the
sitting governor of a must-have swing state like Ohio. Anyway, the Monmouth
data:



Taking the margin of error into account, it’s possible that Perry’s true support
is as high as three percent while Kasich’s is as low as 1.5 percent, and yet
it’s Kasich who’s almost certainly in the main debate while Perry is out. In
fact, as Monmouth notes, only five candidates — Trump, Bush, Walker, Cruz, and
Huckabee — can safely be said in this poll to be in the top 10 in the field
taking into account the margin of error. Conceivably, Perry outpolled even Marco
Rubio(!) here. Obviously that effect is reduced by using an average of many
polls instead of relying on just one, but the fact remains that when you’re
using fractions of a percentage point to decide who’s in and who’s out, the risk
that someone who deserved to end up on the main stage will get shafted is real.

Here’s Seth Meyers begging Fox to include Perry in the main debate and give
America the Trump/Perry barroom brawl we all deserve. Exit question via Byron
York: To repeat a point I made yesterday, are we sure landing in the 5 p.m.
debate isn’t a blessing in disguise? Not only do the participants not have to
worry about being overshadowed by Trump, York argues, but the exchanges are more
likely to be substantive and the smaller field will give each of them more
chances to get noticed. Do well at the 5 p.m. debate and it’s possible your
numbers will bounce high enough to land you on the main stage in the next one.





Tags: Carly Fiorina conservative debate first Fox News GOP primary republican
Rick Perry trump
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