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Tags:
Red Sea Risk Risk and Compliance Piracy and Security
HOUTHIS DEPLOY NEW WEAPONS TO SECURE FIRST DIRECT HIT IN INDIAN OCEAN
YEMEN’S IRAN-BACKED MILITANT GROUP HAS CLAIMED ATTACKS IN THE PAST, BUT THIS IS
THE FIRST TIME A REGIONAL MILITARY ADMINISTRATION HAS CONFIRMED A STRIKE
* 30 Apr 2024
* ANALYSIS
* Bridget Diakun @bridget_diakun Bridget.Diakun@lloydslistintelligence.com
UPDATE: Analysis of a video circulated by Houthi following the attack suggest
that a Shehab drone may have been used against MSC Orion, suggesting that
significantly more accurate weapons with a range of up to 1,600 km are now being
used to target ships
FREE TO READ Source: ZUMA Press, Inc. / Alamy Stock Photo The attack calls into
question the safety of ships travelling in the west of the Indian Ocean on the
approach to the Arabian Sea.
THE Houthis have carried out their first successful attack in the Indian Ocean
after pledging in mid-March to extend missile attacks to the area to include
ships diverting around the Cape of Good Hope.
The Joint Maritime Information Center, an entity that operates under the
Combined Maritime Forces, says an unmanned aerial vehicle attack on a merchant
vessel was reported the night of April 26 while the ship was transiting the
Indian Ocean approximately 300-400 nautical miles southeast of the Horn of
Africa.
The vessel sustained minor damage and all crew are safe.
JMIC reports debris of what appears to be an UAV on board the vessel.
The agency says the ship was likely targeted due to perceived Israeli
affiliation.
Yemeni Armed Forces initially claimed to have targeted containership MSC Orion
(IMO: 9857157) with several drones in a statement on April 29, however naval
sources did not confirm the attack until Tuesday and Mediterranean Shipping
Company, the vessel’s operator, has not yet commented.
MSC Orion was in the area of the attack during the time of the incident reported
on April 26, according to vessel-tracking data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence.
The ship stopped transmitting Automatic Identification System data at 0555 hrs
on April 27 local time and did not reappear until late Tuesday evening when it
arrived at Colombo anchorage.
The Houthis pledged in mid-March to extend missile attacks to include ships in
the Indian Ocean diverting around the Cape of Good Hope.
On April 24, the Houthis claim to have targeted MSC Veracruz (IMO: 9287924),
which was travelling via the Cape of Good Hope to Mina Khalifa/Abu Dhabi, United
Arab Emirates, but this was not corroborated by other sources.
The MSC Orion is the first time a regional administration has confirmed an
attack against a civilian ship this far away from Yemen territory.
“This incident means that the threat has changed, particularly for Israeli ships
or those linked to the UK or US that are operating within the assessed weapons
range within the Indian Ocean,” said EOS Risk Group head of advisory Martin
Kelly.
Given the Houthis’ track record, whereby about 67% of the ships they have
targeted are actually associated with the US, UK or Israel, any expansion of the
scope of attacks is a cause for concern.
The attack on MSC Orion is a significant escalation says analysts.
“The number of requirements for naval forces has grown immensely so attention
shifted away from the Red Sea during the Houthis’ quiet period and naval
presence in the region decreased. Now the Houthis have thrown another spanner in
the works by attacking further afield,” said Ian Ralby, maritime and
international affairs expert, and founder and chief executive of IR Consilium.
“This is going to be a challenge for the navies to figure out what the area of
concern actually is, while also putting more pressure on shipping companies to
assess the risk to their seafarers.”
The JMIC has estimated the maximum range of Houthi missile and rocket attacks to
be about 1,700 km.
The range that Houthis could strike using UAVs is a slightly smaller distance.
Iran claims that some of its UAVs have the range to strike targets some 1,200 km
and 1,600 km away, according to Janes.
Iran is known to be supplying the Houthis with weaponry and equipment.
“The biggest technical challenge is targeting since both systems are principally
designed to fly to pre-programmed GPS coordinates," explained James Trigg,
senior research analyst at Janes, said:
“So, the question becomes how are Ansar Allah [the Houthi movement] updating the
target coordinates to ensure these drones hit their targets, especially if
firing at a vessel so far beyond the reach of Ansar Allah naval intelligence,
surveillance and reconnaissance elements?” said Trigg.
A video released on Tuesday and circulated by the office of the spokesperson for
the Yemeni Armed Forces aligned with Ansar Allah purportedly showing the attack
on Cyclades (IMO: 9799616) raises the possibility that a Shehab drone may have
been used in the attack against MSC Orion, according to Janes’ analysts.
Bulk carrier Cyclades was targeted multiple times with missiles and drones over
a seven-hour period on April 29, according to the JMIC.
While Ansar Allah has previously demonstrated its possession of Samad and
modified Shehab drones in military parades, the video of the attack is the first
proof of their use to attack shipping, says Trigg.
The Shehab drone, which is based on the Samad family of drones, can reach ranges
of 500 km (270 nm) to 1,600 km (864 nm).
It is equipped with an electro-optical targeting system which would make it
better capable of striking a moving target such as a vessel.
No information has been published from where the drone was launched.
Vessels starting rerouting en masse around the Cape of Good Hope in mid-December
after the Houthis increased the frequency of attacks and these strikes became
increasingly indiscriminate.
Some 676 cargo-carrying vessels passed around the Cape of Good Hope last week,
up 72% on normal volumes.
Table
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