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The Jobs Recovery Has Been Robust. It’s Still Leaving Millions Behind.
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https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-jobs-recovery-has-been-robustand-its-still-leaving-millions-behind-51604923201

* Economy & Policy

THE JOBS RECOVERY HAS BEEN ROBUST. IT’S STILL LEAVING MILLIONS BEHIND.

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By
Matthew C. Klein
Updated Nov. 9, 2020 10:17 am ET / Original Nov. 9, 2020 7:00 am ET
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Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images

America’s job market continues to improve from the lows in April. But the
recovery so far, while impressive in its speed, is nevertheless leaving millions
of people behind. The current growth rate just isn’t fast enough to prevent
lasting damage to careers and livelihoods for many Americans.

The good news is that the private sector continued to add jobs in October at a
brisk pace. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ survey of employers,
nongovernment employers added almost a million payroll jobs in October—slightly
more than were added in September. (Offsetting this was a loss of nearly 300,000
government jobs thanks to cuts by state and local governments as well as the
winding down of the 2020 Census.) The separate BLS survey of households found an
even bigger gain of almost 2.5 million jobs after correcting for likely
misclassifications of people who identify as being “employed with an unpaid
absence.”

Both surveys now imply there are about 6% to 7% fewer Americans working now than
in February. That’s a big improvement from April, although it’s still slightly
worse than the worst month of the global financial crisis.

Created with Highcharts 8.1.0The Shock and the SlogThe job market grew quickly
in May and June before settling into a slower andsteadier pace since then. Much
of the initial damage remains.February 2020 = 100Source: Bureau of Labor
Statistics; Barron's calculations
Created with Highcharts 8.1.0Householdemployment(corrected
formisclassification)Payroll employmentMarch
2020AprilMayJuneJulyAug.Sept.Oct.80859095100

The bad news is that the pace of recovery is far too slow for millions of
Americans. Many people who lost their jobs months ago have yet to be rehired.

The easiest way to see this is in the weekly unemployment insurance data, which
show that almost 5 million people were on some kind of extended jobless benefit
after having exhausted normal programs, which generally last 26 weeks, with some
variation across states. While the number of people on extended benefits hasn’t
yet surpassed the peak reached in 2010, it’s getting close.

Created with Highcharts 8.1.0Not Getting Back to WorkThe number of Americans
getting extended unemployment benefits because theyhave been jobless for more
than 26 weeks is heading toward the 2010 high.Recipients of regular and
recession-specific extended benefits programsSource: U.S. Employment & Training
Administration; Barron's calculations
Created with Highcharts 8.1.0.million1987'90'952000'05'10'15'200246

Almost all the people who reported they were unemployed in March and April
self-identified as being on “temporary layoff.” Most of those people have since
been recalled by their employer. While there were still about 2.4 million more
Americans on layoff in October than in February, that’s down about 14.9 million
from the peak in April. Similarly, the huge spike in people who said they were
“employed with an unpaid absence” in March and April had mostly vanished by
July.

The problem is that millions of other Americans who lost their jobs have
experienced little relief. Either they dropped out of the labor force entirely,
or they are part of the fast-rising cohort of “permanent job losers.” The rise
in the number of jobless Americans who don’t expect to get recalled to work has
closely tracked the rise in the number of Americans who have been jobless for 27
weeks or longer.

Created with Highcharts 8.1.0The Downturn Isn't Over for EveryoneThe number of
Americans who lost their job and didn't expect to be recalled by theiremployer
continues to rise sharply in line with the number of long-term
unemployed.Jobless AmericansSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Created with Highcharts 8.1.0.millionPermanent job losersUnemployed 27weeks or
more19952000'05'10'15'2002468

The result is a two-speed job market recovery. For most people, the rebound has
been swift and vigorous. But for millions of others, there has been little
progress since May.

Created with Highcharts 8.1.0Bifurcated RecoveryMost of the job losses since
February were temporary. But that's also where therebound has been concentrated,
with little improvement elsewhere since May.Contributions to broad jobless
rateSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Barron's calculations
Created with Highcharts 8.1.0%Temporary layoffsand misclassifiedAll other,
includinglabor force dropoutssince February 2020Jan.
2020Feb.MarchAprilMayJuneJulyAug.Sept.Oct.05101520

Alex Williams and Skanda Amarnath describe this sequence of events as “The Shock
and the Slog.” The consequence is that the number of people who have been
jobless for more than six months has grown rapidly even as the number of people
who have been jobless fewer than three months has almost returned to the
pre-pandemic normal.

Created with Highcharts 8.1.0Left BehindWhile the number of jobless Americans
continues to fall rapidly, the number who havebeen unemployed for more than six
months is rising quickly.Number of unemployed Americans by duration of
unemploymentSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Created with Highcharts 8.1.0.million27+ weeks15-26 weeksLess than 15 weeksJan.
2020Feb.MarchAprilMayJuneJulyAug.Sept.Oct.0510152025

The typical unemployed American in October was jobless for more than 19 weeks,
up from a typical of 9 weeks in February. While the situation isn’t quite yet as
dire as in the aftermath of the financial crisis, it’s far worse than any
previous downturn. The long-term damage to workers who have been separated from
employers for such a long stretch could leave scars on America’s productive
capacity for a long time to come.

Created with Highcharts 8.1.0The Long SlogMany of those who lost their jobs
earlier in the pandemic remain unemployed,pushing up the typical length of
joblessness close to its all-time high.Median length of unemployment,
weeksSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Created with Highcharts 8.1.01971'75'80'85'90'952000'05'10'15'200510152025

The biggest thing to worry about is that the October survey was conducted before
the recent surge in hospitalizations associated with the soaring infection rate.
Even if America doesn’t follow European governments that are imposing new
lockdowns, the spread of the disease could be another headwind to economic
activity.

Created with Highcharts 8.1.0Third WaveThe number of Americans who have been
hospitalized with severe cases of Covid-19has increased more than 80% since the
beginning of October.Americans currently hospitalized with Covid-19Source: Covid
Tracking Project
Created with Highcharts 8.1.0Date of October jobs report surveyApril
2020MayJuneJulyAug.Sept.Oct.Nov.0200004000060000

Write to Matthew C. Klein at matthew.klein@barrons.com

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* Biotech and Pharma
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COVID VACCINE COULD BE A DRUG INDUSTRY GAME CHANGER

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By
Bill Alpert
Nov. 13, 2020 4:42 pm ET
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IF THE PFIZER/BIONTECH VACCINE IS AS GOOD AS IT SEEMS, IT COULD OPEN THE
FLOODGATES TO OTHER TREATMENTS.

WANG ZHAO/AFP/Getty Images

The value of vaccines has never, ever been clearer. With Covid-19 resurgent
globally, Pfizer and BioNTechreported Monday that their vaccine looks as if it
can cut infection rates by over 90%. Hearts and stocks leapt, especially stocks
in pandemic-penned sectors, such as retail, restaurants, and travel. Wednesday,
Moderna said it would soon have results on its vaccine trial.

“This has such far-reaching consequences in everybody’s lives,” says Bill
Gruber, who heads Pfizer’s vaccine development. “First and foremost, for the...

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THE JOBS RECOVERY HAS BEEN ROBUST. IT’S STILL LEAVING MILLIONS BEHIND.

America’s job market continues to improve from the lows in April.

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