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Bank stocks rose slightly along with the stock market on Tuesday as investors
shrugged off a potentially longer week of US election results and focused
instead on new economic data.


The S&P 500 index rose about 1% on Tuesday, while bank stock indexes rose by a
similar amount. The slight gain came as voters cast their ballots to decide a
key uncertainty for the market: who will become the next U.S. president.


Banks performed in line with the broader market on Tuesday, with the KBW Nasdaq
Bank Index rising 1%. The index is up 25% this year as the Federal Reserve has
started cutting interest rates and concerns about a looming recession have
subsided.


Investors are “waking up to the fact that it’s not Armageddon,” said Kevin
Gordon, top investment strategist at Charles Schwab. He adds that the sharp
downturn in which banks “tend to be hit the hardest” seems unlikely any time
soon. Banks reported some deterioration in their loan portfolios last quarter,
but overall their balance sheets remain “relatively solid,” Gordon said.


More upside potential is possible, he added, noting that banks perform well in
periods of “sustained expansion,” when the Fed takes gradual action rather than
cutting rates to avoid a recession.


Polls in key swing states show a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris
and former President Donald Trump. But investors seemed encouraged by a separate
poll: that of service-oriented companies surveyed by the Institute for Supply
Management.


The ISM services index, a measure of economic activity in the sector, rose for
the fourth month in a row and was at its highest level since July 2022. The
index rose to 56% last month, up from 54, 9% in September.


“That actually reassured investors that the economy is still strong,” said Irene
Tunkel, chief U.S. equity strategist at BCA Research.


The strong ISM report helped allay any concerns following Friday’s news about US
employers Only 12,000 jobs were added in October. Economists had attributed the
unusually weak report to hurricane-related disruptions and a Boeing employee
strike.


Tuesday’s ISM report was another example of “relatively resilient economic
data,” Gordon said.


But there could also be short-term volatility, especially if election results
are too close to be predicted by the time markets open on Wednesday, Tunkel
said.


“The market thinks the economy is doing well,” Tunkel said. But “what the
country wants most is for election uncertainty to be lifted,” she added.




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